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14 July 2021. https://georgetownsecuritystudiesreview.org/2021/07/14/growth-of-space-and-lunar-stations-promise-amidst-geopolitical-risk/, 7: NASA. &@ ;;TAsKjYfro~~HQb^qAbQj^r~HeA{Q~i@ P endstream endobj 9288 0 obj <>stream Washington, DC 20591 Packages today delivered by airplane or truck could be delivered more quickly by rocket. https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/ourwork/space-agencies.html, accessed 15 December 2021. 29: Gabbat, A. 27 January 2017. https://theconversation.com/the-outer-space-treaty-has-been-remarkably-successful-but-is-it-fit-for-the-modern-age-71381, 22: Li, C. and Wang, G. 2021. This is because when objects in space collide, they may break up and produce debris thateven at sizes of 1 to 5 centimetres in diametercould cause severe damage.16 For example, the International Space Station (ISS) was damaged in May 2021 when a piece of debris penetrated its robotic arm.17 Such strikes have been documented for decades, but they may become more frequent. Available: http://www.fullertreacymoney.com/system/data/files/PDFs/2017/October/4th/space%20-%20the%20next%20investment%20frontier%20-%20gs.pdf, Large LEO satellite constellations: Will it be different this time? McKinsey Quarterly, May 4, 2020. Near term, space as an investment theme is also likely to impact a number of industries beyond Aerospace & Defense, such as IT Hardware and Telecom sectors. Accessed on: Oct. 25, 2020. The billionaire space race launches a new venture capital solar system. 21 April 2021. https://spacenews.com/china-is-developing-plans-for-a-13000-satellite-communications-megaconstellation/; Spiegel Business. NASA. Ripple effects across societies could be extensive, even for a few seconds of disruption.35, There are also significant unknowns about the impacts of rapid space development on Earths environmentincluding damage to the ozone layer, butterfly effects from black carbon (soot) emissions, and possible alterations of the polar jet stream.36 Of course, technological advances, such as developments in space-based solar power, could offset many of the potential negative environmental impacts of growing space exploration and exploitation.37. 38: UNOOSA (United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs). June 2021. https://espi.or.at/publications/espi-public-reports/category/2-public-espi-reports; Goswami, N. 2021. Accessed on: Oct. 25, 2020. SERvO euN endstream endobj 9289 0 obj <>stream Taking advantage of these opportunities to achieve widely accepted norms could then help facilitate discussions around more challenging issues in space, such as limits on weaponization, ownership and appropriate venues from which to govern the realm. 2021. 2020. 1 October 2021. https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/aerospace-and-defense/our-insights/look-out-below-what-will-happen-to-the-space-debris-in-orbit, 15: NASA. 2021. The Space Review. Accessed on: Oct. 25, 2020. Washington, DC 20591 Available: https://www.ida.org/-/media/feature/publications/m/me/measuring-the-space-economy-estimating-the-value-of-economic-activities-in-and-for-space/d-10814.ashx, C. Stone, Perception vs. reality in NASAs commercial crew and cargo program, The Space Review, October 8, 2012. You can find information on deleting cookies in the help section of your browser. [Online]. 24 July 2020. https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/investing-in-space; Stutt, A. &i1j=kl9VIV*H~`O*$(VRxN`nHl`3ZA)BmPmRHD[wC4fDX87RJDf2Q"S6iY&^kr5\pPx:~K?~?g=pew/m)lR_u NccWXvREipsvqe3I!$l_3z $ endstream endobj 9285 0 obj <>stream Available: https://spacenews.com/commerce-department-to-develop-new-estimate-of-the-size-of-the-space-economy/, K. W. Crane, E. Linck, B. Lal, and R. Y. Wei, Measuring the Space Economy: Estimating the Value of Economic Activities in and for Space, Science and Technology Policy Institute, March 2020. 1980s: All Eyes Focus on Space Shuttle, NASAs John F Kennedy Space Center, June 2012. The coming revolution in intelligence affairs. Financial Times. 2, pp. 7 July 2021. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/07/technology/space-start-ups.html. Launching satellites that offer broadband Internet service will help to drive down the cost of data, just as demand for that data explodes. #SpaceWatchGL Opinion: How to make the Moon work? 6 May 2021. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/24/us/politics/trump-biden-pentagon-space-missiles-satellite.html, 13: Daehnick, C. and Harrington, J. Commercial Space Transportation is working to meet the needs now and into the future by working with those involved in every facet of the commercial space industry including the next generation of rocket engineers and scientists. Accessed on: Oct. 25, 2020. If you have ever driven through a pitch-black, rainy night on an unlit country road, you probably have been thankful for the invention of reflective paint. If you are using our Services via a browser you can restrict, block or remove cookies through your web browser settings. Available: https://www.nasa.gov/centers/kennedy/about/history/timeline/80s-decade.html, National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Accessed on: Oct. 25, 2020. [Online]. 28: Goguichvili, Linenberger and Gillette. [Online]. How space became the next great power contest between the U.S. and China. Accessed on: Oct. 25, 2020. 83 (A6): 26372646. Diplomat Risk Intelligence. 1: Fildes, N. 2021. #SpaceWatchGL Opinion: How people and media perceive space? Available: https://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20200001093.pdf, R. Zafar, SpaceX Could Bring Starship Launch Costs Down To $10/kg Believes Musk, WCCFTECH, May 8, 2020. [Online]. This development could benefit the U.S. Defense Departmentas well as the aerospace and defense industriesand help focus and accelerate investment in innovative technologies and capabilities. Morgan Stanley estimates that the global space industry could generate revenue of U.S.$1.1 trillion or more in 2040, up from U.S.$350 billion, currently. Accessed on: Oct. 25, 2020. Manage natural resource use? SpaceXs competitors claim Elon Musk could monopolize space. The most relevant of space agreements, the Outer Space Treaty, was concluded in 1967 and still, through the UN Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA), governs much of the activity taking place in space. Nature. 15 November 2021. https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/nov/15/us-investigating-debris-event-space-reports-russia-anti-satellite-weapon-test; Rincon, P. and Amos, J. Start-ups aim beyond Earth. One theory, known as the Kessler Effect (see Box 5.1), posits the potential consequences of a cascading effect.18 Estimates put the current number of smaller pieces of debris (larger than 1 centimetre in size) at nearly a million,19 while larger objects over 10 centimetres number in the thousands (see Figure 5.2). A lock ( LockA locked padlock ) or https:// means youve safely connected to the .gov website. But how do those satellites make it into space? 9 December 2019. https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20190033989; Kessler, DJ. [Online]. The Policy and Science of Rocket Emissions. The violent solar storms that threaten Earth. 66%)% Available: https://doi.org/10.3917/jie.020.0009, Heiney, A. https://doi:10.1029/JA083iA06p02637. Powers such as China, the European Union, France, Germany, India, Japan, NATO, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States have publicly announced space forces and continue to build space infrastructure, with plans for at least five new space stations by 2030 in the works.5 The first commercial space station is also slated for completion in the next decade.6 Next-step deep space exploration projects are under development, such as the United States-led Artemis programmewhich aims to reopen exploration of the Moon and eventually develop outposts on Mars and asteroids.7 In addition, new space-faring powers will emerge as more economies begin to see opportunities to expand both geopolitical and commercial influence in this arena. That same month, the Trump Administration announced plans to create a U.S. Space Command (including a Space Operations Force and a Space Development Agency). 866.835.5322 (866-TELL-FAA)Contact Us, United States Department of Transportation, Aviation Safety Draft Documents Open for Comment, Airport Coronavirus Response Grant Program, Legislation & Policies, Regulations & Guidance, Certificated Remote Pilots including Commercial Operators, Recreational Flyers & Modeler Community-Based Organizations, FAA's STEM Aviation and Space Education (, The Annual Compendium of Commercial Space Transportation 2018, Introduction to U.S. 16 September 2021. https://www.forbes.com/sites/rebeccaszkutak/2021/09/16/the-billionaire-space-race-launches-a-new-venture-capital-solar-system/?sh=74f837e7482e, 40: Khodairy, S., Sharaf, M., Awad, M., Hamed, R.A. and Hussein, M. 2020. Available: https://www.thespacereview.com/article/2166/1#, OECD, The Space Economy in Figures: How Space Contributes to the Global Economy, OECD Publishing, Paris, 2019. However, if manufacturing, tourism or other space ventures fail to take flight, speculators and space industry companies could see their bubble burst. 2021. 10 January 2019. https://theconversation.com/renewed-space-rivalry-between-nations-ignores-a-tradition-of-cooperation-108810, 26: Goguichvili, S., Linenberger, A. and Gillette, A. Status of existing and emerging Asia-Pacific space powers capabilities. For complete information about the cookies we use, data we collect and how we process them, please check our. This will likely be an important milestone for the relationship between private enterprise and the U.S. government in the space domain, and one that may garner high levels of media and investor attention. in hypersonic weapon 'arms race' with China -Air Force secretary. Deutsch Bank. Yet, for a large majority of governments, space technology, and access will remain out of reach altogether at a time when reliance on space technologies is growing for all. 15 April 2021. https://time.com/5954941/u-s-china-should-collaborate-in-space/; Shackelford, S. 2019. IOP Publishing. 20 August 2021. https://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-special-reports/status-of-existing-and-emerging-asia-pacific-space-powers-capabilities/, 9: Buchs, R. 2021. Available: https://www.ccn.com/in-spite-of-elon-musk-spacexs-valuation-has-surged-122233-since-2002/, Space Angels,Space Investment Quarterly Q4, 2019, Space Angels, USA, Jan. 14, 2019. Refreshing Resilience: From COVID-19 Lessons to a Whole-of-Society Response, Schwab Foundation for Social Entrepreneurship, Centre for the Fourth Industrial Revolution, https://www.ft.com/content/138b3f58-cdad-484f-b180-ce0b96bb7028, https://www.thespacereview.com/article/3883/1, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/07/technology/space-start-ups.html, https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/investing-in-space, https://www.mining.com/the-global-race-to-mine-outer-space/, https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/nov/15/us-investigating-debris-event-space-reports-russia-anti-satellite-weapon-test, https://www.space.com/tiangong-space-station, https://georgetownsecuritystudiesreview.org/2021/07/14/growth-of-space-and-lunar-stations-promise-amidst-geopolitical-risk/, https://espi.or.at/publications/espi-public-reports/category/2-public-espi-reports, https://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-special-reports/status-of-existing-and-emerging-asia-pacific-space-powers-capabilities/, https://www.epfl.ch/research/domains/irgc/spotlight-on-risk-series/intensifying-space-activity-calls-for-increased-scrutiny-of-risks/, https://www.techtimes.com/articles/260823/20210529/spacexs-competitors-claims-elon-musk-monopolize-space-starlink-constellation-unsustainable.htm, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/24/us/politics/trump-biden-pentagon-space-missiles-satellite.html, https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/aerospace-and-defense/our-insights/look-out-below-what-will-happen-to-the-space-debris-in-orbit, https://spacenews.com/china-is-developing-plans-for-a-13000-satellite-communications-megaconstellation/, https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/jeff-bezos-plant-private-raumstation-orbital-reef-etwas-kleiner-als-die-iss-a-1779efd7-6ee6-4c92-9986-7fc996951e8f, https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/soa_2021.pdf, https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02167-5, https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/01/world/iss-orbital-debris-robotic-arm-scn/index.html, https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20190033989, https://www.esa.int/Safety_Security/Space_Debris/Space_debris_by_the_numbers, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/05/space-junk-clean-satellite/, https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/dec/28/china-complains-to-un-after-space-station-is-forced-to-move-to-avoid-starlink-satellites, https://theconversation.com/the-outer-space-treaty-has-been-remarkably-successful-but-is-it-fit-for-the-modern-age-71381, https://www.bcg.com/en-us/publications/2020/coming-battle-for-spectrum, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/United-States-Space-Priorities-Framework-_-December-1-2021.pdf, https://time.com/5954941/u-s-china-should-collaborate-in-space/, https://theconversation.com/renewed-space-rivalry-between-nations-ignores-a-tradition-of-cooperation-108810, https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/global-legal-landscape-space-who-writes-rules-final-frontier, https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-59307862, https://www.ft.com/content/ba0a3cde-719b-4040-93cb-a486e1f843fb, https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-hypersonic-weapon-arms-race-with-china-air-force-secretary-2021-11-30/, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-conducts-test-launch-hypersonic-missile-interfax-2021-12-24/, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/north-america/2020-08-31/coming-revolution-intelligence-affairs, https://www.dbresearch.com/servlet/reweb2.ReWEB?rwsite=RPS_EN-PROD&rwobj=ReDisplay.Start.class&document=PROD0000000000521006, https://dri.thediplomat.com/report/2021-03/, https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-46260959, https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/gps-is-easy-to-hack-and-the-u-s-has-no-backup/, https://aerospace.org/sites/default/files/2018-05/RocketEmissions_0.pdf, https://www.space.com/space-solar-power-research-advances, https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/ourwork/space-agencies.html, https://www.forbes.com/sites/rebeccaszkutak/2021/09/16/the-billionaire-space-race-launches-a-new-venture-capital-solar-system/?sh=74f837e7482e, https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1742-6596/1523/1/012010/pdf, Chapter 1. Chinas Tiangong space station. Available: https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc87389/, L. M. Dooley, Case study research and theory building, Advances in Developing Human Resources, vol. Mining.com. 1 December 2019. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/gps-is-easy-to-hack-and-the-u-s-has-no-backup/, 36: Ross, M. and Vedda, J.A. Available: https://www.blueorigin.com/, J. Matthews, The Decline of Commercial Space Launch Costs, Deloitte Consulting LLP. Time. 16 October 2021. https://www.ft.com/content/ba0a3cde-719b-4040-93cb-a486e1f843fb; Stone, M. 2021. Beyond the opportunities generated by satellite broadband Internet, the new frontiers in rocketry offer some tantalizing possibilities. Morgan Stanleys research idea on the Space investments: https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/investing-in-space. 24 August 2021. https://www.space.com/tiangong-space-station; Rome, N. 2021. [Online]. Democratizing space exploration with new technologies. A single transformative technology shift often can spark new eras of modernization, followed by a flurry of complimentary innovations. While private-equity projects have grabbed most of the headlines in recent years, public-sector interest has also grown. SpaceNews. https://dri.thediplomat.com/report/2021-03/, 35: Scott, C. 2018. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2011-05-15, 19: The European Space Agency. Export Controls for the Commercial Space Industry, The Annual Compendium of Commercial Space Transportation 2017, The Annual Compendium of Commercial Space Transportation: 2016, The Annual Compendium of Commercial Space Transportation: 2014, The Annual Compendium of Commercial Space Transportation: 2013, The 2012 Annual Compendium of Commercial Space Transportation, The 2015 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts, The 2013 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts, Commercial Space Transportation: 2011 Year in Review, January 2012, Year in Review Fact Sheet, CY 2011, January 2012, Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). Accessed: Oct. 25, 2020. Forbes. 39: Szkutak, R. 2021. Available: https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/investing-in-space, Copyright (c) 2021 Damini Rana; Dr. Mritunjay Sharma. [Online]. The Guardian. Venture financing flooded into the space industry following the successful launches of commercial space flights. [Online]. You can change these settings at any time. 25 October 2021. https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/jeff-bezos-plant-private-raumstation-orbital-reef-etwas-kleiner-als-die-iss-a-1779efd7-6ee6-4c92-9986-7fc996951e8f, 14: Daehnick, C. and Harrington, J. Spiegel Business. FAA's STEM Aviation and Space Education (AVSED) program. EPFL. At the FAA we are always looking for new ways that our user community can access the data we collect. #SpaceWatchGL Opinion: James Webb Space Telescope astronomy and our best selves. Accessed on: Oct. 25 2020. 3, pp. Mining equipment could be sent to asteroids to extract mineralsall possible, theoretically, with the recent breakthroughs in rocketry. Available: https://www.airspacemag.com/space/is-spacex-changing-the-rocket-equation-132285884/, H. W. Jones, The Impact of Lower Launch Cost on Space Life Support, NASA, Dec. 2015. 22 May 2020. https://www.mining.com/the-global-race-to-mine-outer-space/; Woo. %%EOF However, few effective governance tools have emerged in recent years to reflect new realities, such as the pressing need for an authority to govern satellite launches and servicing, space traffic control and common enforcement principles.21, As an exemplar challenge, the 1972 Space Liability Conventionwhich governs international responsibility for space objects launched from Earthlacks precision around hybrid aircraft and rocket transport systems. Renewed space rivalry between nations ignores a tradition of cooperation. Emerging Spacefaring Nations. Approximately 11,000 satellites have been launched since Sputnik 1 in 1957, but 70,000 more could enter orbit in the coming decades if proposed plans play out.13 The vast majority of these new planned and approved satellites will be launched by a handful of operators that will have increasing influence over the regulatory landscape. 4, no. Nautilus Institute. [Online]. The Guardian. Intensifying space activity calls for increased scrutiny of risks. KPMGs industry report on the future of the Space economy: https://home.kpmg/xx/en/home/insights/2020/12/the-future-of-the-space-economy.html. 2021. 2831 0 obj <>stream Emerging Spacefaring Nations. The demand for data is growing at an exponential rate, while the cost of access to space (and, by extension, data) is falling by orders of magnitude, says Jonas. 31 August 2020. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/north-america/2020-08-31/coming-revolution-intelligence-affairs, 32: Stutt, A. Space junk hit the International Space Station, damaging a robotic arm. Accessed on: Oct. 25, 2020. The global race to mine outer space. Mining.com. Available: https://history.state.gov/milestones/1953-1960/sputnik, G. Genta, Private Space Exploration: A New Way for Starting a Spacefaring Society?, Acta Astronautica, vol. rtUP7(cACTPN$$T|ear4$*E*C^LIJ+)Vle*#W]r,_9KxWsIJ`Wym08:9E" ;p&bxO1`x~N|1l6}_~&xrY'v>>Ua{{13U_mL}vm~_gwWL5cVnKl|7nj",h"(YXx5&Om1*vE*Bi{kyKEV8TCZFEif72B;*`#At{eqdE-_jKWuL8_yTJm_fdx8d:^Iy.T}6o>juG7Vpt1/sC]>m/v=Mr-vx+-Y.K=X6ewq^==Q1v~#h1d2 AkY&5Z8FK'gHF/fso.okmqGJJF2Ew=|wy/Ed[ov)O-h_7582t%P&fYYe2fLl\o3qs@xG'x0?Y.$UTXBe^Z-1w. 6dq15@R-i4/.a%,\uK-U{{>Y\bG#x_D7,h2j#E;8bz"'~#j@(,'z|0 Historically, any endeavors, involving the term space, were perceived as operations undertaken by large government organizations with an emphasis on the scientific aspect, rather than a business one. 2021. (H@5:Vh7YS]xr}vw+v2i=KCSz. A:.rTGh$Aw^QT}:\)) kP&3eDrf . For example, governments will increasingly need to compete for talent, with private sector entities offering more lucrative employment packages. Accessed on: Oct. 25, 2020. Today, development of reusable rockets may provide a similar turning point. The global race to mine outer space. Accessed on: Oct. 25, 2020. Space solar powers time may finally be coming. Available: https://doi.org/10.1787/c5996201-en, G. Autry, The next economic revolution just (re)launched: Congratulate SpaceX, thank NASA, Forbes, April 1, 2017. GPS is easy to hack, and the U.S. has no back-up. 15 November 2021. https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/nov/15/us-investigating-debris-event-space-reports-russia-anti-satellite-weapon-test; Jones, A. Decide which cookies you want to allow. Among countries that have expressed interest are Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico in Latin America; Egypt, Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and the United Arab Emirates in Africa and the Middle East; and Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, New Zealand, South Korea and Vietnam in the Asia-Pacific region.8, Alongside new programme development, the critical infrastructure on which many civil and commercial entities rely must be maintained and secured.9 Satellites in LEO as well as in MEO and GEO are used for multiple purposes that include climate and natural resource monitoring, broadband internet, and radio and television broadcasting, as well as position, navigation, and timing services.10 While this infrastructure will continue to remain vital for governments, businesses, and societies, it is also creating opportunities for nations with an advanced space industry, supported by national-level regulation, to stake claims to specific orbital sectors by virtue of first-mover advantage.11 Finally, space will continue to be of critical military importance: armed forces have long relied on space-based or space-supported technologiesincluding Global Positioning System (GPS) for navigation, dedicated military satellite-based communications for secure digital connectivity and spy satellites for intelligencemaking such systems tempting military targets and spurring the need for enhanced defensive measures.12. [Online]. *dDNprI1?JYiUXU&DeDz~`Kx&m45xKd} 3xN nMA9o{vL5> U$W$}wzHrG\f#x>imp2mWk J@m@QC]PUr-s+C+}JjwRpet83?xoM5Y&mCv]zu1q # qF74?_05Nn3ONba|-NrdP`9rXpI=G0?#M:Dp\xI{ cZ_,^6v 2jM3Mkgzf+S~ 0 < To offer you the best possible functionality of our website, we also use a few cookies. Other leading armed forces also now typically include a space componentfor instance, in 2021, the French Air Force became the Air and Space Force (Arme de lAir & de lEspace). In a recent update to its report, Investment Implications of the Final Frontier, Morgan Stanley Research examines these fast-moving developments and charts the constellation of potential opportunities in space. Copyright SpaceWatch.Global GmbH 2022, All Rights Reserved. Morgan Stanley estimates that satellite broadband will represent 50% of the projected growth of the global space economy by 2040and as much as 70% in the most bullish scenario. Accessed on: Oct. 25, 2020. 11 February 2020. https://www.bcg.com/en-us/publications/2020/coming-battle-for-spectrum, 24: See, e.g., U.S. Office of the Vice-President. [Online]. 2021. We use cookies to enhance your experience while using our website. Available: https://doi.org/10.1177/1523422302043007, Space Foundation, The Space Report 2018: The Authoritative Guide to Global Space Activity, Space Foundation, CO, USA, 2018.